A Hurricane In November Is Not Weird - 2 Simultaneously Is

At the time of writing, Hurricane Lisa is Category 1 storm with winds around 80 mph. It is on the verge of making landfall in Belize. Simultaneously, Hurricane Martin is a “fish” storm in the central Atlantic Ocean with winds near 75 mph. While it is not unusual to have a hurricane in November, it is rare to see two at the same time during the month of November.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was relatively quiet for much of the season. In fact, not a single hurricane formed during the month of August. The graphic above illustrates that a hurricane is far more likely to form in August than November. The same illustration also points out that hurricanes do, however, form in November. In fact, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analysis (below) spanning the years 1851 to 2015 illustrates the origin point for storms forming between November 1st and 10th. Both Lisa and Martin formed in fairly typical locations.

So is it rare to have two at the same time? To answer this question, I turn to Colorado State University expert Dr. Phil Klotzbach. On Wednesday, he tweeted some perspective on the current scenario. It is quite rare. In fact, it has only happened three times during the record keeping era.

The map below depicts sea surface temperature anomalies (departures from average). The Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are anomalously warm for this time of year. Tropical systems thrive on high ocean heat content. I want to also point out the cooler than normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That represents the current La Nina pattern influencing our fall and winter season weather patterns. La Nina conditions are generally favorable for more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Martin marks the 13th named storm of the season. When compared to recent decades, that is pretty close to average. We still have a few weeks left in the season, and it is always important to remember nature doesn’t flip some magic switch on November 30th. We’ve seen years in which tropical systems formed well into December. Even now, the models are hinting at some type of “low” off the coast of Florida by early next week. It should be watched closely.