'Serious and growing concerns': Meteorologists already expect a busy hurricane season

Early signs point to a busy hurricane season, according to some meteorologists, and Rhode Island is overdue, as a hurricane hasn't made landfall in the Ocean State for more than 30 years.

AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter has "serious and growing concerns" about the upcoming hurricane season, the weather service reported in a story on its website last week.

"I would certainly agree with AccuWeather that the odds favor an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season at this point," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.

That means the Atlantic could generate more storms, more powerful storms and a longer hurricane season, meteorologists say.

Hurricane Bob, in 1991, was the last hurricane to make landfall in Rhode Island, a state that historically averages a hurricane every 20 years, noted Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.

"It's obviously been more than 20 years. We're kind of due," said DaSilva, who grew up in Lincoln.

"That doesn't mean one is coming this year," he said, but he added, "You don't want people to become complacent. You want people to be prepared if something does happen."

How water temperature and wind shear affect hurricanes

In raising concerns about this hurricane season, meteorologists point to two main factors: high water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the likely absence of strong winds in the upper atmosphere that can break up storms.

"Warmer-than-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures provide a more conducive environment for hurricane development and intensification, since hurricanes live off warm ocean water," Klotzbach said via email.

Water temperatures are well above normal, potentially record-breaking, in the Atlantic Ocean as a whole and especially higher in a part of the Atlantic where most Atlantic hurricanes form, meteorologists say.

Forecasters are already seeing temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean normally reached in spring or early summer. The water temperature in the so-called Atlantic Main Development Region, roughly between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean, is already in the mid to upper 70s, according to DaSilva.

"That's just going to go up from here," DaSilva said.

If the sea surface temperatures "don't come back toward climatological values (which go up as the calendar progresses), that would be a sign for a potentially busy year," Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said via email.

Additionally, hurricane forecasters are watching a likely change in a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that has an impact on hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean. Two opposing patterns called El Niño and La Niña are detectable in water temperature and trade winds in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, according to NOAA.

The current pattern is El Niño, but that's likely to shift to La Niña by the middle of the hurricane season, forecasters say. El Niño typically provides protection against hurricanes because it delivers disruptive winds high in the atmosphere, but that protective shield is likely to disappear.

"Normally El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear," Klotzbach said. "Too much shear tears apart hurricanes."

The current prediction gives a 55% chance that La Niña will be in place "during at least a portion of the core of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (August-October)," according to Rosencrans.

"If the La Niña materializes, then that would be supportive, especially of a long season with late season activity," Rosencrans said.

How might 2024 measure up against 2023?

The hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but tropical storms can sometimes form earlier or later.

The Atlantic basin had 20 named storms last year, the fourth-most named storms in a year since 1950, according to NOAA. Seven of those storms were hurricanes and three were major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher.

An average year has 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three major hurricanes, NOAA says.

At this point, it looks like the 2024 season will be "at least as active or potentially more active than last year," DaSilva said.

Still, the meteorologists note that it's early and conditions can change. Other factors "that don't have long-range predictability can impact parts of the hurricane season," Rosencrans said.

Is it possible to predict the chances of a hurricane making landfall in Southern New England this season?

"The predictions of landfalls are best made a week or so out in time," Rosencrans said.

The Climate Prediction Center is targeting May 23 for the release of NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook, according to Rosencrans. AccuWeather will release its full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast in March. Colorado State University will release its forecast in April.

Klotzbach said, "If these current anomalies persist through the end of March, however, I do expect we'll be coming out with quite an aggressive forecast with our 4 April outlook."

Rosencrans says preparing early for the hurricane season "can make preparations easier, as costs and energy are spread out over time." He recommends visiting Ready.gov or Listo.gov.